Oh, the horror! The horror!…and that’s a good thing!?
2025 was yet another great year for horror, a historically underrepresented genre with only one best picture winner: 1991’s Silence of the Lambs. That’s not to say there haven’t been other thrillers in the big dance. Jaws, The Exorcist, and last year’s body horror flick The Substance were all up for the year’s biggest prize, but none could bring it home. Is Sinners destined to join the lambs, or will it be silenced by Another? It’s sure to be an epic Battle.
Either way, horror is set up for a big night. Amy Madigan is the favorite to win Weapons an acting prize for supporting actress, while Sinners is a lock for at least 4 awards, possibly more, including the first ever in the casting category. And let’s not sleep on Frankenstein, which probably won’t take home any of the top prizes but has a solid chance at three or more technical awards. Hell, even the spooky, gothic spin on Cinderella, The Ugly Stepsister, snuck its way in with an HMU nom. I don’t think the glass slipper fits, but it’s an honor just to be invited to attend the ball.
In all, horror is likely to bring home upwards of ten out of 24 Oscars, a major win for one of Hollywood’s underdog genres.
But I don’t expect underdogs to rule the day. Five movies landed 9+ nominations this season: Sinners (16), OBAA (13), Frankenstein (9), Marty Supreme (9), and Sentimental Value (9). Of these, I expect the majority of the awards to go to the two juggernauts, Sinners and OBAA. As previously mentioned, look for Frank to go on a little run in the techs. I think, fittingly, Marty is going home empty-handed. I think in operatic terms, the fat lady has sung on Timotheé’s 2025 Oscar hopes.
There is something that feels inherently dirty about watching the Oscars and celebrating movies at a time when so much is going on in our world. In the midst of a genocide (yes, a genocide, among other modern atrocities), how does one sit idly by and watch a live performance of “Golden” while eating popcorn and sipping Blue Moons?
While I do see it as a privilege, I also see value in supporting artists in times of crisis.
This year, for the first time, I was able to watch every nominated movie (35 features, 15 shorts). Please, hold your applause until the end. Those movies included The Alabama Solution, which exposes abuses of the Alabama prison system; The Voice of Hind Rajab, which reenacts a true story at a Red Crescent call center of a group of people try to save a six-year old girl whose family has already been murdered in cold blood by Israeli forces; A Friend of Dorothy, about an LGBTQ+ ally who mentors a young boy; and of course Sinners, with its themes of cultural appropriation and systemic oppression.
There are voices everywhere that deserve amplifying, and by supporting a medium which continues to do great work in telling important stories, we give space to truths in a post-truth society. I’m not here to claim that watching the Oscars is “doing our part,” only to say that there is room to appreciate art and also make a difference in other meaningful ways. My belief is that it’s up to each of us to make positive change within our communities and continue believing in the good of humanity. Simultaneously, we must find enjoyment where we can and embrace entertainment in all its forms.
Having watched all fifty movies, here are my ten favorites - not necessarily “best,” but favorites:
Train Dreams
Hamnet
Sinners
Avatar: Fire and Ash (sue me)
Sentimental Value
Come See Me in the Good Light
One Battle After Another
Marty Supreme
Blue Moon
Weapons
But enough of my usual blah, blah, blah. Let’s make everybody rich! On to the predictions!
Best Director
Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another, OBAA)
Should Win: PTA
Confidence: I’m 75% Sure
With 16 nominations, I know there will be disappointment among Sinners fans that some of the bigger prizes go elsewhere, and Ryan Coogler not being recognized here could cause a stir on the interweb, but this has felt like PTA’s award for some time. I don’t think Coogler will go home empty-handed as he will win for original screenplay.
Best ACTOR
Will Win: Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)
Should Win: Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon)
Confidence: I’m 75% Sure
While late Sinner momentum for Best Picture and Best Director might be red herrings, the momentum for MBJ for actor feels very real. This was Chalamet’s award to lose, and he lost it with some over-exposure on an abysmal press tour. The narrative that he was too young to win might have been overblown at first, but then he sort of proved the haters right. Honestly, good call by the haters. Still love you, Tim, but it’s not your time.
Best ACTRESS
Will Win: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
Should Win: Jessie Buckley
Confidence: I’m 100% Sure
If I had to bet my life savings on one category, it would probably be VFX for Avatar. But if that wasn’t available, it would be this. Buckley has had this wrapped up for months.
Best Supporting ACTor
Will Win: Sean Penn (OBAA-2)
Should Win: Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)
Confidence: Dart Throw
I didn’t think Penn stood a chance here, and while it’s a very strong category it’s also not the flashiest category. After winning the BAFTA and SAG, I’m back in on him as a come-from-behind winner.
Best Supporting ACTress
Will Win: Amy Madigan (Weapons)
Should Win: Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners)
Confidence: Dart Throw
Try figuring this one out: Taylor won the Golden Globe, Madigan won the SAG, and Mosaku won the BAFTA. I’m nervous that Madigan wasn’t even nominated for the BAFTA, and this being the only nom for Weapons is a big ol’ red flag. Plus, Madigan is running on pure Demi Moore 2025 logic: “we love her, she’s been around forever, and she nailed it in last year’s sleeper horror hit.” Well, that didn’t work out for Demi. But, few things: while Weapons was more popular among the youngins, Madigan is popular among the old heads. That’s good news, she’s got a wide spectrum of support. Plus, we’re talking supporting, not lead, which is where Demi was upset in 2025. If Taylor or Mosaku win, nobody should be surprised, but I’m going with the slight favorite.
Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Sinners-2
Should Win: Sinners
Confidence: I’m 100% Sure
I don’t think this is particularly close.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: One Battle After Another-3
Should Win: OBAA
Confidence: I’m 100% Sure
WB will be very pleased with the above-the-line haul from OBAA and Sinners.
Best CASTING
Will Win: Sinners-3
Should Win: Sinners
Confidence: I’m 100% Sure
I don’t really get the addition of this category before stunt performance.
Best ANIMATED FEATURE
Will Win: K-Pop Demon Hunters
Should Win: Arco
Confidence: I’m 100% Sure
K-Pop is so much fun and such a phenomenon, there is no way it goes down to Zootopia 2, but I did find Z2 and Arco to actually be better overall movies.
Best International FEATURE
Will Win: Sentimental Value
Should Win: Sentimental Value
Confidence: I’m 75% Sure
The Secret Agent is a love-it-or-hate-it movie, and It Was Just An Accident probably barely missed out on a BP nom, but Sentimental Value will endure and Joachim Trier should have already won for The Worst Person in the World so this is an overdue win.
Best Documentary FEATURE
Will Win: The Perfect Neighbor
Should Win: Come See Me in the Good Light
Confidence: I’m 75% Sure
A batch of truly sad, maddening, urgently important documentary features. I know watching difficult movies is not for everyone, and I’m not suggesting that’s a bad thing, but I really wish more people would expose themselves to tough realities.
Best Documentary Short
Will Win: All the Empty Rooms
Should Win: All the Empty Rooms
Confidence: I’m 100% Sure
Hey, wanna get walloped? Watch All the Empty Rooms.
Best Live Action Short
Will Win: A Friend of Dorothy
Should Win: Two People Exchanging Saliva
Confidence: Dart Throw
Usually I can gauge by the audience, but this year all five movies were received very well at our screening of the live action shorts - shoutout Midtown Art Cinema in Atlanta. I think the slight favorite is Two People Exchanging Saliva, but I liked how compact and touching A Friend of Dorothy was, and I think that will resonate.
Best Animated Short
Will Win: Butterfly
Should Win: Retirement Plan
Confidence: Dark Throw
Butterfly is the one that is sad, and people do seem to like sad!
Best Original Score
Will Win: Sinners-4
Should Win: Sinners
Confidence: I’m 100% Sure
Ludwig Göransson is 41 and about to win a third Oscar for a third iconic score. How is he going to follow this one up? Oh yeah, he has Nolan’s The Odyssey coming out in four months.
Best Original Song
Will Win: KPop Demon Hunters-2
Should Win: Train Dreams
Confidence: I’m 100% Sure
Counting Oscars is really not fair. But we will forever be able to say that KPop Demon Hunters won more Oscars than Marty Supreme.
Best Sound
Will Win: F1
Should Win: Sirât
Confidence: I’m 75% Sure
Two things I know: period dramas always win costume. Car go vroom always win sound.
Best Production Design
Will Win: Frankenstein
Should Win: Frankenstein
Confidence: I’m 75% Sure
Frankenstein might not take home any major prizes, but it’s going to go on a nice little run for the techs this year.
Best CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will Win: OBAA-4
Should Win: Train Dreams
Confidence: Dart Throw
Up until March 8th, I foolishly still had hope that Train Dreams or Sinners had a shot. But when Michael Bauman took home the American Society of Cinematographers award, it basically sealed the deal. Still, Autumn Durald Arkapaw could pull the upset with her work using 70MM IMAX cameras on Sinners, and become the first woman to ever take home this prize. We can still (train) dream…
Best Makeup and Hair
Will Win: Frankenstein-2
Should Win: Frankenstein
Confidence: I’m 100% Sure
This was a weird category this year, and I’m shocked Weapons didn’t pick up a nom here.
Best COSTUME DESIGN
Will Win: Frankenstein-3
Should Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Confidence: I’m 75% Sure
There is a sense that since Sinners is winning some of the bigger prizes, voters may want to spread the love in these. But let’s put it out there: if Sinners takes the technicals, it’s an early indicator that they are set up for an historically massive night.
Best FiLM eDITING
Will Win: OBAA-5
Should Win: Sinners
Confidence: I’m 75% Sure
A heavy favorite.
Best Visual Effects
Will Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Should Win: Avatar
Confidence: I’m 100% Sure
Don’t be foolish.
And Best Picture Goes To…
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER (6th award of the night)
Yes, Sinners won at SAG and at WGA, and SAG is the largest voting body. But OBAA won BAFTA, Golden Globes, DGA, PGA, and took home an equivalent prize at WGA, a combo that has equaled a best picture win literally every time. Sinners would not be a surprise, but I do think that we’re a little numb to how popular OBAA is among industry voters and possibly a bit thrown by the staggering 16 nominations for Sinners. That’s…a lot. But One Battle had 13 of its own. And keep in mind the movie that leads nominations is not a true indicator that it’s a BP winner (sorry, La La Land).
These are two massive movies, both deserving of the top prize and both likely to remain culturally relevant in a way many BP winners seldom do.
I like the way the cookie crumbles if these predictions are correct. MBJ and Ryan Coogler will both have their moment, and the casting prize will recognize the entire ensemble for their work, while Ludwig’s propulsive score is also going to take home the gold. But OBAA still takes the top prize and hopefully that means the message of both movies resonated with viewers and encourages studios to continue taking risks on unique projects with strong ideas and important themes.
I’M ALWAYS RIGHT. BET THE HOUSE! 24-0 LET’S GOOOO.
Thanks and see everyone next time!